San Francisco’s most expensive neighborhoods are also the only ones where homes are selling for more this year than they did during pandemic peaks, a sign of continued strength in the ultra luxury market, according to Compass data.
Single-family homes in District 7, which includes neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina, sold for a median of $5.75 million between Jan. 1 and June 30 of this year, easily beating the 2021 peak of just under $5.3 million. That new high-water mark follows two years of median sales coming in around $5 million.
Compass Chief Market Analyst Patrick Carlisle cautioned that median sale prices in very expensive neighborhoods can fluctuate due to a few very high-end sales. This year, several $20-million-plus sales are certainly impacting the figures, though the two biggest sales so far this year — Laurene Powell Jobs’ record-breaking buy of a $71-million home on Billionaire’s Row in Pacific Heights and the Battery Club founders sale of their $29.15 million home down the street — came in after the year-to-date figures were collected.
“The luxury and ultra-luxury market has certainly performed more strongly in 2024 than the general market,” Carlisle said via email, adding that has proven true throughout the Bay Area because of the bullish stock market. “But one can’t come to definitive conclusions about fair market appreciation based on a single reading of the median sales price.”
Compass agent Nina Hatvany, who specializes in D7, said that a few big sales in the district are likely pushing up the overall averages more than the rest of the city.
“The high-end market is recovering a bit and this year we have finally had a good amount of sales over $5 million — and there are more of those in Pacific Heights/Presidio Heights/Western Cow Hollow than in other areas, so the averages may look better,” she said via email.
She said the north side of town is “consistently attractive” due to its waterfront location, parks and schools, and that “the push to other neighborhoods because they are closer to commute destinations is over.” At the same time, she said, the pandemic-era rush to the open space of the city’s western neighborhoods has also subsided.
Comparing neighborhoods
Homes in District 7 are the most expensive, but they also take the longest to sell at 43 days and only 34 percent sell over list price, according to Compass data. District 2, which includes the Sunset, Golden Gate Heights and Parkside neighborhoods, has the highest number of home sales, as well as the quickest time on market at just 20 days and the highest percentage of sales over asking at 85 percent. The 2024 median price is $1.58 million, compared with $1.5 million last year and $1.7 million at the peak in 2020 and 2021.
District 10, which includes the Bayview, Excelsior and Crocker Amazon, had the second-highest percentage of sales over list price at 77 percent and is also the most affordable market in the city with a median price of $1.12 million this year. The Bayview is the only neighborhood in the city where the median-priced single-family home is still under $1 million.
Looking at the condo market, three neighborhoods have a median price below $1 million: Civic Center is the least expensive at $630,000, followed by South of Market at $775,000 and the Inner Mission just shy of $1 million. Cow Hollow has the most expensive condo market at a median of $1.8 million.
Condo inventory is the highest in District 9, which includes SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach. Condos in District 9 had the longest time on the market at 73 days, the lowest percentage of over-asking sales at 17 percent and an average underbid of 5 percent. South Beach had by far the most condo sales in the city at 126, with Pacific Heights taking the second-highest-spot at 85 deals. Median condo prices in District 9 are up slightly over last year at $1.02 million but well below 2019’s $1.157 million peak.
District 5, which includes Noe and Eureka valleys, the Castro and Mission Dolores, and District 1, which includes the Richmond and Laurel Heights, had the most competitive condo markets in the city, according to Compass data. The average condo went for 5.5 percent over asking between January and July in both areas and was on the market for just 33 days.
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