Texas housing boom: is market overpriced?

The Lone Star state has seen unprecedented growth in the past year, pushing premiums up to 60%.

The Texas housing market is booming and buyers are paying up to 60% above market values (iStock)
The Texas housing market is booming and buyers are paying up to 60% above market values (iStock)

The value of Dallas-Fort Worth housing gained $151 billion last year, making the metro area the 11th-most valuable of the 50 largest U.S. metros, according to a Dallas Business Journal analysis of the Zillow report. Homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth area are now worth a total of $782 billion–$491 billion more than a decade ago.

The total value of private residential real estate in the U.S. grew by a record $6.9 trillion in 2021, to $43.4 trillion – more than double the level from a decade ago when the Great Recession hit the housing market.

Not only did prices explode, but more homes were built in 2021 than in any year since 2007 as builders hustled to meet demand, Zillow senior economist Jeff Tucker said in the report.

“Skyrocketing home values may be celebrated by longtime homeowners, but are daunting for those trying to buy their first home,” Tucker said. “This year is likely to be less competitive for buyers, but it will continue to be a sellers market.”

Texas’ unprecedented growth and business-friendly policies have attracted real estate brokers such as Douglas Ellimen and Compass to the city as well as companies such as Samsung and Tesla.

The Houston housing market gained $107 billion last year, and is now worth a total of $644 billion – $386 billion more than it was a decade ago. The Austin market grew by $109 billion last year to $374 billion and has seen a swell of $259 billion in the past decade.

San Antonio’s housing market gained $35 billion last year and $112 billion in the past 10 years, pushing the total value of homes in the Alamo City to $204 billion.

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While the Zillow report detailed untouched growth in the Texas housing market, the Dallas Business Journal compared the data with a study from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University that could suggest the market is overvalued.

Austin is the nation’s second-most overpriced housing market in the nation, after Boise, Idaho, according to researchers.

Buyers in Central Texas overpay by more than 60 percent, based on past pricing trends, according to the analysis, which is updated monthly. Whereas those in Boise are paying a premium of about 77 percent.

Dallas-Fort Worth ranks 19th most overpriced in the nation, with a roughly 40 percent premium. The San Antonio area ranks 43rd most overvalued with a 28 percent premium, and Houston is 50th with 24 percent.

New York firms like BlackRock and Brixmor have already made moves to capitalize on north Texas markets this year.

[Dallas Business Journal] – Maddy Sperling

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