That Austin housing bust? Not likely.

Texas economist says the capital city isn’t in a bubble in new market report

Texas A&M research economist Adam Purdue (LinkedIn, iStock)
Texas A&M research economist Adam Purdue (LinkedIn, iStock)

Texas’ capital city saw an increase in homes for sale in May, with dollar volume increasing while the median price held steady.

The Austin-Round Rock area had enough inventory on the market to last 1.2 months, according to the monthly Central Texas Housing Market Report by the Austin Board of Realtors. The median sales price remained at the record-setting $550,000 it hit in April, a 19 percent increase over April 2021.

Active listings were way up — 146 percent higher than last year, to 4,173 — and new listings increased 18.8 percent over last year, to 5,231.

Area residential sales were on the downslide, declining 7 percent year over year to 3,633, but sales dollar volume for the month was $2.4 billion — 9 percent higher than in May 2021. Pending sales declined 13 percent to 3,643 transactions.

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Do the stats herald a bursting bubble for the Austin area housing market? Not likely, said Texas A&M research economist Adam Perdue, quoted in the report.

The rise in inventory and active listings signal that the market might be starting to “normalize,” Perdue said, and home prices are projected to “fall slightly lower than the long-term trend we’ve monitored over the past two years.”

Due to number of factors including affordability issues and an economic growth loop fed by the “the high influx of companies and individuals migrating to the area both from within Texas and out-of-state,” he said, “the sales decline appears to be more likely a supply issue than a demand one and does not indicate a bubble bursting.”

Within Austin city limits, May home sales decreased 10 percent year over year to 1,121 sales, but sales dollar volume increased 5.6 percent, to $923 million, and median price rose 18 percent, setting a new all-time record of $667,000. New listings increased 5 percent to 1,511, active listings increased 73 percent to 1,067 and pending sales dropped by 16 percent to 1,122 since May 2021 Monthly housing inventory in the city increased to one month, double what it was this time last year.

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