A new poll has Rep. Karen Bass leading billionaire developer Rick Caruso by 4 percentage points among likely voters in the sprint toward Tuesday’s election for Los Angeles mayor.
Bass now leads Caruso 45 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with 13 percent who remain undecided, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing a poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
The poll, co-sponsored by the Times, contradicts the results of a poll last month by the Southern California News Group that found Caruso leading among likely voters by 3 percentage points.
The lead in either poll may be statistically significant, so the race for mayor of the nation’s second-largest city remains a toss-up until Nov. 8.
Bass’ 4-point advantage in the Times poll is within its margin of error and a fraction of the 15-point margin among likely voters she held a month ago. Among registered voters, the October poll had her leading by 3 percent.
“This race could go either way,” said Tommy Newman, senior director at United Way of Greater Los Angeles, who is working with a coalition to pass a housing tax measure on the November ballot and is a close watcher of local politics. “Nobody has this in the bag.”
“[Caruso] is probably running the most robust field campaign we have ever seen in a mayor’s race,” he said. “In a tight race, that’s when field campaigns matter.”
With both campaigns now trying to get out the vote, Caruso has spent $13 million mustering 300 to 400 door knockers across the city to remind voters about the election. The field operation aims to spur turnout, especially among Latino voters, who have shown interest in Caruso but won’t necessarily cast a ballot unless pushed.
His campaign has featured an onslaught of advertising. By late last month, Caruso had spent $53 million since the June primary on campaign ads on TV, radio and online, or 13 times more than his opponent.
Records showed the shopping mall mogul on track to spend $100 million in his bid for Los Angeles mayor, all but a fraction out of his own pocket.
Support for Bass, a former speaker of the State Assembly, community organizer and physician’s assistant, remains strong among women, liberals and registered Democrats. She leads among both white and Black likely voters, the poll found.
Support for Caruso, a developer of such malls as The Grove at Farmers Market in Los Angeles, the Americana at Brand in Glendale and the Commons at Calabasas, has gained ground in tandem with his tens of millions in campaign ads.
He has made sizable leads among Latinos, moderates and residents of the San Fernando Valley, in addition to conservative and Republican voters in Los Angeles.
Bass leads by 40 percentage points among likely voters who identify as somewhat liberal, according to the times, or 64 percent to 22 percent, according to the Times/Berkeley poll. He leads by more than 60 percentage points among those who are strongly liberal, or 74 percent to 12 percent.
The liberal voters could block Caruso’s support in the Valley, where he now leads by 9 points, or 45 percent to 36 percent. Bass is ahead in every other part of the city by nearly 20 points except South L.A. and the Harbor, where she holds 48 percent support to Caruso’s 43 percent.
— Dana Bartholomew
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