From coast to coast, conversations about the housing market are dominated by speculation about interest rates.
But in North Texas, complaints about the cost of debt often get drowned out by the clamor of bulldozers and the roar of traffic on the endless highways that criss-cross the Metroplex.
The economy continues to hum in a region that’s home to the fastest-growing cities in the country. And while the real estate frenzy that characterized 2021 may be over, Dallas-Fort Worth’s top residential brokerages appear to be doing just fine.
“Every month, I keep thinking it will slow down or we’ll see a bit of a pullback, but we just have not seen it yet,” said Allie Beth Allman & Associates’ CEO and president, Keith Conlon.
Growth market
Unfortunately for the “Don’t California my Texas” ilk, brokers are still seeing a lot of out-of-state buyers, primarily from California, New York and Illinois, Conlon said.
Their destination? Dallas’ northern suburbs.
Of the five fastest-growing cities in the country, three are in Collin County: Celina, Princeton and Anna, according to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
“There’s no question that North Dallas is strong, especially for people coming in from outside the market. That’s really driven by where the headquarters are being relocated to,” said Coldwell Banker’s Midwest regional president, Ayoub Rabah.
At least 19 companies announced moves to North Texas in 2023, the Dallas Morning News reported. More than half moved to Collin County, to Frisco, Plano or Allen.
That flurry of growth has already reached the Oklahoma border. Texas Instruments’ new campus in Sherman — a boomtown more than 65 miles north of Dallas — has created plenty of business for the local office of the North Texas brokerage Ebby Halliday, CEO Carolyn Rosson said.
Subscribe to TRD Data to unlock this content
New homes are going up at a historic clip.
In 2023, 11,000 single-family permits were filed in Collin County, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. It’s on pace to eclipse that number in 2024, with 3,600 single-family building permits filed in the first three months of the year.
In fact, new builds currently make up nearly 40 percent of home sales in North Texas, Rabah said.
Incentives like interest rate buydowns are softening the blow of expensive debt for buyers of new builds, he said.
Even with the deluge of new development, demand still outpaces supply in the Metroplex.
“A well-priced home that shows well is still getting multiple offers and selling for listing price or higher,” Rabah said.
Dallas and beyond
Ebby Halliday — which comprises Ebby Halliday Realtors, Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate and Williams Trew Real Estate — scored the top sale of the year in North Texas’ MLS.
The estate at 6825 Golf Drive in Dallas was listed for $19.95 million, Rosson said.
The six-bedroom, 14,600-square-foot home is a modern interpretation of the Spanish Revival architecture characteristic of Santa Barbara and Montecito, California, per the listing. It was built in 2018 and is located in Dallas’ prestigious University Park neighborhood.
“When I think of Dallas, I think of luxury,” Coldwell Banker’s Andrea Gillespie said.
So do DFW buyers.
The average purchase price topped $1 million for two of the region’s five top-producing brokerages last year — Allie Beth Allman and Briggs Freeman Sotheby’s International.
The luxury offices ranked third and fourth, respectively, in this year’s list of top-producing brokerages. Compass topped the list, with sales volume of more than $2.5 billion in 2023.
Buyers looking in this price range are often able to bypass the interest rate question by paying with cash, brokers said.
In addition, the pandemic initiated an abiding wave of interest in ranch properties, Ebby Halliday’s Rosson said.
They may technically be “lake houses,” but these compounds often come with land and can sell for several million dollars, Conlon said. Some of the most popular rural destinations he’s seen are Lake Palestine, Lake Athens and Cedar Creek Reservoir.
“Places where people can leave on a Friday and be there for dinner, and they can stay Friday, Saturday and they’re back Sunday evening,” he said.
Long Cove, for example, is a gated community about 70 miles southeast of downtown Dallas. It’s located on the southern end of Cedar Creek Reservoir, just west of Athens. The 1,200-acre development features a golf course, resort-style pools and a full-service marina.
The elephant in the room
It’s not all cash offers and multimillion-dollar lake houses.
Here, and everywhere, the industry is bracing itself for the changes to come from the NAR settlement, which banned brokers from making commission offers on NAR-affiliated MLSs. In addition, buyers’ agents are now required to have clients sign representation agreements before working with them.
Conlon called the settlement “a good reset,” because it reminded brokers that many clients don’t understand the homebuying process.
It’s not clear how exactly the settlement will change brokerage practices, but it will force brokers to go back to the basics — a process that will be easier for some than others, Conlon said.
It could be a reckoning for some who joined the industry in the last few years when interest rates were low, thinking that it would be an easy way to make a quick buck.
“The good agents will continue to do what they do, and the newer agents are going to have to really work hard and figure it out, and it might not be the right career for them,” he said.
Access the comprehensive data set supporting this ranking, including key contact information, by visiting therealdeal.com/data.