When Mayor Michael Bloomberg unveils his preliminary budget in the next few weeks, property owners and brokers will no doubt be flipping past the allocations for snow removal and pothole repairs to see whether the bound document includes an extension of the past year’s property tax relief.
The 7 percent cut was passed as a one-shot reprieve, at a time when the city had amassed an estimated $4 billion surplus, fueled by record profits on Wall Street and a real estate market that refused to cool off.
Now, many brokers and property owners are holding their breath and waiting to see whether Bloomberg is going to extend the relief for another year, despite the current economic uncertainty, or if he is going to make what would surely be a politically unpopular move – and let it sunset.
Brokers said any increase in real estate taxes could dissuade buyers at a time when the market is at a crossroads.
“The tax benefits keep people in the city, and may also encourage renters to be first-time homebuyers,” said Iris Shorin, a broker at DJK Residential in Manhattan. “It’s an enormous boost to the city for people who come here and would otherwise not think about buying.”
Michael Goldenberg, executive director of sales for Halstead Property’s West Side office, agreed. He indicated that buyers consider “two things” when they buy real estate: “How much cash they put down and what their monthly nut is going to be.
“Anything that goes into that equation,” Goldenberg continued, “has to be looked at as an increase in costs.”
Doug Turetsky, the chief of staff at the Independent Budget Office, said given the fact that Bloomberg has been talking about the downturn in the economy, “it will be interesting to see if he proposes continuing the rate cut.”
Turetsky also pointed out that while Bloomberg billed the 7 percent property tax cut as a one-year reduction that would only continue if the city could afford it, he also built the reduction into every year of the city’s four-year financial plan.
“It doesn’t mean it can’t be reversed,” Turetsky said. “But one would think you’ve created an expectation.”
Complicating matters is that most property owners did not see the 7 percent cut in their bills because the tax formula is tied to assessments. When assessments go up, there is more money to levy taxes on.
According to the Department of Finance, the city’s total real estate value jumped 19 percent to $802.4 billion in fiscal 2008 from $674.1 billion in fiscal 2007. The assessment for fiscal 2009 is set to come out
Jan. 5.
Bloomberg’s budget officials recently revised the city’s revenue projections for real-estate related taxes, another factor that could go into the mayor’s decision.
The city is now predicting that it will take in an average of $242 million less per year in real estate taxes through fiscal 2011 because of factors including a slowdown in real estate transactions, a dip in sales prices, the tighter credit market and higher lending standards on large commercial deals. For fiscal 2008 specifically, the city cut its revenue estimates from the mortgage recording tax by $174 million and the real property transfer tax by $82 million.
The revised figures could bolster Bloomberg’s case for rolling back the cut if he chooses to do so. He has not shied away from tax increases in the past.
In 2002, he pushed through an 18.5 percent property tax hike as the city was recovering from the World Trade Center attacks. While that did not win him brownie points with property owners, it did generate record revenues for the city.
“One of the reasons we had a $4 billion surplus was the fact that we had an escalation in [revenues generated from] property taxes and real estate transfer taxes,” said Steven Spinola, president of the Real Estate Board of New York.
Budget experts are now warning of more fiscal clouds. State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli stated in a report last month that the subprime crisis and the fallout on Wall Street will create a $2.7 billion budget gap for the city in fiscal 2009.
If the New York real estate market and the national economy slow down, as expected, the gap for fiscal 2011 will grow from $2.1 billion to about $6.5 billion, he predicted.
City Comptroller William Thompson Jr. said last month that the real estate market continued to show strength through the first nine months of the year, but that the outer boroughs showed signs of slippage.
Commercial real estate vacancies tightened to 5.5 percent during the first nine months of 2007, compared with 7.7 percent in 2006, the report noted, citing Cushman & Wakefield data.
It also said the number of real estate sales in Manhattan rose by two-thirds in the third quarter compared with a year ago, but that residential sales in Queens fell 20 percent in between the second and third quarters.
The latest property tax cut came on top of the annual $400 property tax rebate. City Council Member David Weprin, the chairman of the finance committee, said, “It was wise to [cut taxes] because we had a huge budget surplus. Obviously, [this] year may not be the same case.”
Still, Weprin said he would like to see an extension of the property tax cut because the city cannot afford to lose middle-class taxpayers to the suburbs. “In general, I don’t want to see property taxes rising,” he said. “That’s something that keeps middle-class residents in the city.”
A Bloomberg spokesperson said he could not comment on the property tax until the mayor announces his budget plans. However, real estate and elected officials said they are hoping the mayor can find a way to balance the budget with the cut still in place.
“There are times when I’m glad that I’m not the mayor,” said Adrian Zuckerman, a real estate attorney at Epstein Becker & Green in Manhattan. “To the extent there is somebody who is able to truly create a solution as good as possible, Bloomberg is the guy.”