The slump in commercial building sales is threatening to take a sizable bite out of New York City tax revenues this year, which could force Mayor Michael Bloomberg to make even more drastic choices than he already has to keep the city budget balanced.
The local economic slump, led by billion-dollar losses on Wall Street and rising foreclosure rates, has already forced Bloomberg to propose rescinding the city’s 7 percent property tax cut and imposing minor budget cuts into fiscal 2009. And, last month he said the city now faces a $500 million budget gap this year and will see the fiscal 2010 deficit rise to $3.3 billion, which is $1 billion more than previously expected.
As a result of the economic woes, early revenue forecasts will be revised downward, as transfer taxes and mortgage recording tax revenues are down about 25 percent from a year ago. That decline will continue until investors are able to finance deals at favorable rates.
“I don’t think we’re going to be going back to the 1970s, but we’re going to see a difficult and challenging period over the next couple of years,” said Marcia Van Wagner, deputy city comptroller.
Commercial real estate sales are considered one of the most important sources of revenue for New York City. For every transaction, the city gets 2.65 percent of the sale price above $500,000 in the form of real property transfer taxes, and $2.80 for every $100 in value for mortgages above $500,000.
The Independent Budget Office, a budget watchdog group, estimates that the city generated a record $3.3 billion from the combined taxes in 2007, as they grew at an average annual rate of 24.6 percent since 2001.
The city clearly has already started to feel the impact of the subprime crisis. Real property transfer taxes and mortgage recording taxes fell about 22 percent, or $700 million, for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2008, according to the comptroller’s office.
Meanwhile, commercial real estate deals are down 55 percent from a year ago, according to Cushman & Wakefield, which reported $18.7 billion in Manhattan building sales through the first nine months of 2008.
“The tightness in the debt market, combined with the recent financial sector difficulty, has slowed sales volume further in recent months,” said Joseph Harbert, chief operating officer of Cushman & Wakefield’s New York region.
Cushman & Wakefield said the last time commercial building sales were below $20 billion by this time of year was 2004.
The report noted that a significant portion of these transactions included the sale of Harry Macklowe’s properties, which were distressed assets he sold to avoid defaulting on more than $6 billion in short-term debt. All of those sales were all either financed by the seller or involved the buyer assuming an existing mortgage.
Analysts have said that the Macklowe properties would have sold for 15 to 20 percent more, had the seller found a buyer with his own source of financing. Nonetheless, they did bring in revenue for government coffers.
For example, the $930 million sale of Harry Macklowe’s 850 Third Avenue and Park Avenue Tower at 65 East 55th Street to Shorenstein Properties netted $24.4 million in real property transfer taxes to New York City and $3.72 million in New York State transfer taxes, according to New York City finance records.
Outside of the distressed building trades, the prospects for near-term commercial office transactions were reduced further by the fact that Manhattan office vacancies hit a two-year high of 7.4 percent, freezing overall office rents at $72.97 a square foot. So on top of the lack of available credit, the slowdown in the office leasing market makes it less attractive for buyers to invest in local investment properties.
The few deals getting done in New York are driven by sellers, who must sell to pay off existing debt, or banks looking for someone to take over an existing mortgage.
Due to the lack of financing, many of the deals completed in recent months are for smaller properties ranging from $50 to $100 million.
For example, in July, French handbag retailer Longchamp bought a five-story townhouse at 713 Madison Avenue for $48 million. Longchamp operated one of its two retail stores in the building, whose sellers included heirs to the philanthropic Mailman family. This transaction netted the city $1.26 million in real property transfer taxes and $192,000 in state transfer taxes, according to city records.
The size of these deals makes them much less risky to finance, but they also mean less money for the city. In a stronger market, sellers can obviously hold out for higher prices.
In a July report, the most recent figures available, the Bloomberg administration forecast a 25.7 percent decline in mortgage recording taxes and real property transfer taxes during fiscal 2009, which ends June 30 of next year.
However, during the first two months of the fiscal
year, collections were down 26.1 percent — already worse than expected.
Since July, though, a collapse of financial markets that
includes the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the Merrill
Lynch takeover, the rescue of insurance giant AIG, the Washington Mutual acquisition and the federal bailout package has made the picture even gloomier.
“It’s quite possible they might have to revise their assumptions again,” said Jim Fuchs, spokesperson for the New York State Comptroller’s office.
The big question for New York City officials is how to offset the decline in taxes without cutting essential services or imposing onerous taxes for local businesses.
In addition to proposing an earlier rollback of the 7 percent property tax cut, Bloomberg asked city agencies to plan for 2.5 percent cuts in the current fiscal year and 5 percent cuts in the coming year. He is expected to announce lower revenue projections this month and will have to come up with alternative revenue sources or spending cuts.
“I’m sure there will be people who will raise concerns about that,” said George Sweeting, deputy director of the Independent Budget Office, referring to the possible tax increases and cuts. “A big issue when you’re raising taxes is, ‘Which tax do you raise, and how do you raise it?'”
In an October speech before the Citizens Budget Commission, Christine Quinn, City Council speaker, warned that the city might have to consider an increase in the personal income tax. She said the city might even consider selling advertising space on public buildings and garbage trucks to generate additional income. But the income tax hike would have to be approved by Albany and would likely be a tough political battle.