Of the $70 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities outstanding that will mature next year, $15.5 billion of the fixed-rate mortgages and $12.2 billion of the adjustable-rate mortgages have been flagged by analytics firm Trepp as potentially difficult to refinance.
“The merry-go-round will stop, and they are not all going to get financing,” said Eric Thompson, a managing director at Kroll Bond Rating Agency.
Analysts told the Journal it will be hard to calculate how many commercial property loans will default. But the delinquency rate, which rose to 9.5 percent from .3 percent in the last three years, is expected to rise further, according to Trepp and other analysts. [WSJ]