Study shows slower home sales in election years

Miami /
Sep.September 13, 2015 09:00 AM

Thinking of listing your home for sale next year? You might want to wait until after the 2016 elections.

In election years, home sales decline between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, according to a paper in the British Journal of Science by Brandice Canes-Wrone, a Princeton University economist and her co-author Jee-Kwang Park, an assistant professor at Nazarbayev University in Kazakstan.

The used Zillow.com data to examine home sales during 73 gubernatorial elections in 35 states in the 1999-2006 period.

Dr. Canes-Wrone said the reason the pace of home sales slows in election years is probably uncertainty among potential home buyers about the election’s impact on their financial position.

Her study with Park found that the so-called “election effect” was greater in closely contested elections. In election years when the winner got less than 55 percent of the votes, sales of homes declined by 0.33 to 0.5 percent.

Another analysis in 2012 by real estate site Movoto found slower home appreciation in presidential election years, based on a review of price data from the California Realtors Association.

Movoto found that sale prices rose 4.5 percent in election years, compared with 6 percent the year before and 5.3 percent the year after. [Wall Street Journal] — Mike Seemuth


Related Articles

arrow_forward_ios
Daily Digest Miami
FINCEN renews order looking at cash purchases, Barry Sternlicht is eyeing an economic slowdown: Daily digest
FINCEN renews order looking at cash purchases, Barry Sternlicht is eyeing an economic slowdown: Daily digest
(Illustration by Andrew Colin Beck)
These highly leveraged real estate firms could feel the squeeze in a downturn
These highly leveraged real estate firms could feel the squeeze in a downturn
Laurie Reader, broker-owner of Laurie Finkelstein Reader Real Estate (Credit: iStock)
Here’s how Zillow Offers will buy and flip homes in South Florida
Here’s how Zillow Offers will buy and flip homes in South Florida
Zillow CEO Rich Barton (Credit: iStock)
Zillow Offers launches in South Florida
Zillow Offers launches in South Florida
Daily Digest Miami
Ben Carson dismisses concerns about Opportunity Zones, private equity landlord pays $10M for Palm Beach Gardens properties: Daily digest
Ben Carson dismisses concerns about Opportunity Zones, private equity landlord pays $10M for Palm Beach Gardens properties: Daily digest
Daily Digest Miami
Airbnb fights against Palm Beach County’s requirement, what’s next for Barneys: Daily digest
Airbnb fights against Palm Beach County’s requirement, what’s next for Barneys: Daily digest
Zillow's CEO Richard Barton
Zillow faces legal action over its co-marketing program
Zillow faces legal action over its co-marketing program
Amid rising demand for mortgages, Zillow launches “Home Loans” division
Amid rising demand for mortgages, Zillow launches “Home Loans” division
Amid rising demand for mortgages, Zillow launches “Home Loans” division
arrow_forward_ios

The Deal's newsletters give you the latest scoops, fresh headlines, marketing data, and things to know within the industry.

Loading...