Summer Cements Strongest Buyer’s Market in Over a Decade

Nationwide, this summer marked the most lopsided U.S. housing market in more than a decade: far more sellers than buyers and negotiating leverage squarely in the hands of those still willing to transact.

There were about 506,000 more home sellers than buyers nationwide in August, a 35.2 percent gap, according to a Redfin report. June was the only month tracked by the report since 2013 with a greater imbalance, with a 36.3 percent spread.

Buyer demand sank to the lowest level since records began in 2013, excluding the earliest days of the pandemic. Redfin estimates just 1.44 million active buyers in August, while the number of sellers fell slightly to 1.94 million after peaking in May.

Florida and Texas are ground zero for the power shift. Miami led all major metros with 143 percent more sellers than buyers, followed by Austin, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and San Antonio.

In total, 33 of the 50 largest metros were classified as buyer’s markets, 12 were balanced and only five leaned seller-friendly. The strongest seller’s market was Newark, where there were 43 percent fewer sellers than buyers.

Despite the glut of listings, affordability remains a sticking point. Mortgage rates, though down in recent weeks, are still more than double their pandemic lows and home prices continue creeping up.

The Sun Belt markets most tilted toward buyers also happen to be places where homebuilders went on a spree during the pandemic. Florida is now contending with the added pressures of soaring insurance premiums, HOA fees and climate risks, which have pushed some homeowners to leave.

Meanwhile, Denver and Las Vegas saw the sharpest recent swings toward buyer’s markets. Denver, for example, had just 7.9 percent more sellers than buyers a year ago; in August that gap widened to 57.1 percent.

The average 30-year fixed sat at 6.26 percent last week, the lowest in a year but still high enough to sideline many buyers. Redfin economists say rates would likely need to fall below 6 percent to lure back significant demand.

Whether the buyer advantage sticks depends on the Fed and the broader economy. Falling rates could bring buyers back, but a slowing economy could cut both ways, making financing easier while also raising recession fears.