Chill out: San Fran’s only got “elevated risk of bubble activity”

It's "nowhere near close to what true bubble behavior would look like,” according to's Javier Vivas

(Credit: Pixabay)
(Credit: Pixabay)

Housing prices have been riding sky-high for six years, but a recent downward trend has some wondering whether it’s the beginning of the end for San Francisco’s strong resi market.

Median sales prices topped out after the fourth quarter of 2017 with single-family homes going for $1.5 million on average and condos and lofts at just over $1 million, according to Mansion Global.

But experts say the tick down is not a concern. The key factors to watch, according to’s Javier Vivas, is whether house flipping is picking up and construction.

Paragon Real Estate Group’s Patrick Carlisle notes that historically San Fran’s housing crashes are triggered by national or international factors as opposed to local conditions.

“We have a lot of issues going on in the Bay Area that I think are warning signals about our local economy … but none of them that I see triggering some sudden dramatic crash,” he told Mansion Global.

One example? Trump’s plan to hike import tariffs on steel.

“If the cost of these materials keeps going up, then construction costs are going to keep going up,” said broker Nina Geneson Otis to Mansion Global. [Mansion Global]Erin Hudson