A more extreme hurricane season than normal could inflict trillions of dollars of reconstruction cost on some 40 million U.S. homes, mostly in New York, Miami and the Gulf Coast.
As many as 21 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, could hit the nation this year, property analytics firm CoreLogic said in its annual report, citing a forecast for the June-November hurricane season from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The report analyzed hurricane, storm surge and wind risk exposure for single- and multi-family residences along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, from Texas to Maine.
“This hurricane season could be particularly severe for the U.S. Gulf Coast due to warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, an ongoing La Niña, and a stronger than average loop current in the Gulf of Mexico,” said CoreLogic Chief Meteorologist Daniel Betten.
CoreLogic’s damage estimates include the total estimated value of reconstruction costs, which takes into account the combined cost of construction materials, building equipment and labor while assuming complete destruction of the property.
Among the 15 metropolitan areas and states analyzed, the firm found that the New York metro area has the greatest risk. About 900,000 homes are at risk of storm surge damage and could cost almost $433 billion to rebuild. High winds could damage more than four million homes that would cost about $2.2 trillion to rebuild.
The Miami area ranked second. About 770,000 homes there are at risk from storms and will cost $193 billion to rebuild. More than two million homes are at risk to damage from high wind and would cost $521 billion to rebuild.
At the state level, Florida, Louisiana and New York have the greatest number of at-risk homes with more than three million, almost 911,000 and more than 600,000 homes at risk, respectively. Texas had the highest number of homes at risk – more than 8.8 million – for incurring hurricane wind damage.
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