TRD Pro: Ranking Brooklyn, Queens condo pipeline hotspots

The following is a preview of one of the hundreds of data sets that will be available on TRD Pro — the one-stop real estate terminal that provides all the data and market information you need.

Brooklyn and Queens have become the new frontier of condo development in New York City, attracting ever more investment in recent years to build increasingly luxurious offerings.

The city’s two most populous boroughs have more than 22,000 condo units in the pipeline between them, nearly 70 percent more than the 13,000 on tap for Manhattan. But where are they going to be?

Hunters Point in Queens dominates the two borough’s pipeline with 1,983 units in the works — 60 percent more than its nearest rival, Flushing, Queens, which has 1,236. Downtown Brooklyn ranks third with 1,200 units on the way, followed by Brooklyn’s Bedford-Stuyvesant with 1,146 and 948 slated for Long Island City, Queens.

Though Queens neighborhoods took three of the top five spots, Brooklyn had 13 of the top 20 neighborhoods ranked by condo units on tap.

To rank the outer borough neighborhoods with the fattest pipelines, TRD Pro analyzed condo offering plans for Brooklyn and Queens submitted to the state Attorney General’s office from 2016 through March 31 2022, including those that have been approved and declared effective.

While top-ranked Hunters Point has 30 individual projects in the pipeline, nearly half of its total units are packed into a single development — the 802-unit Skyline Tower, which is bigger than the neighborhood’s next seven largest projects combined. The 67-story tower — the tallest building in Queens and tallest condo tower outside of Manhattan — began closings in February 2021 and expects a total sellout of $1.11 billion, the richest of any condo project in either borough. Skyline Tower is developed by Chris Jiashu Xu alongside Risland US Holdings and FSA Capital.

Downtown Brooklyn’s largest development also towers above its neighbors. The 11 Hoyt Condominium’s 481 units make the Tishman Speyer project more than two and a half times the size of its nearest rival, and the second largest development in either borough, after Skyline Tower. Its $826 million sellout is also the second highest.

Those two developments — along with the 408-unit Front & York Condominium in Dumbo — are of different scale entirely from most other projects in the outer borough pipeline. The next-largest project in either borough is the East River Condominium in Astoria, Queens, with 214 units. Only 34 of the 1,335 developments underway have 100 or more units.

Overall, Brooklyn has by far the most condo units on tap with 13,622 — 60 percent more than Queens, which has just 8,516. And its total expected sellout, at more than $18 billion is double Queens’ $8 billion. But Brooklyn’s units are scattered among 1,058 individual projects. For example, No. 3-ranked Bedford-Stuyvesant’s 1,146 units are spread out over more than 100 projects for an average density of about 10 units each.

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Meanwhile in Queens, units are concentrated in just 277 projects across the whole borough, making its condo developments more than twice as dense as Brooklyn’s on average. Of the 20 neighborhoods with the highest density of units per project, 14 are in Queens, as are seven of the 10 biggest projects across both boroughs.

Though condo towers may grow taller in Queens, Brooklyn is still the most fertile ground financially for developers, boasting 16 of the top 20 neighborhoods ranked by average expected sellout per unit. Brooklyn Heights tops that list with an average unit price of $3.6 million, followed by the Kings County neighborhoods of Vinegar Hill with $2.5 million, Cobble Hill with $2.4 million, Dumbo with $2.3 million and South Williamsburg with $2.2 million. The first appearance of a Queens neighborhood on that list is Carroll Gardens at No. 6 with an average unit price of $2 million.