Editor’s note: What’s in store for ’24

Congratulations. If you’re reading this, you’ve made it to 2024 — and considering the chaotic year real estate had in 2023, that’s no small feat. 

I’d like to tell you for sure that there’s smoother sailing ahead. That rates will settle just above zero, that more inventory will appear on the market and that all your deals will close on time. 

Who knows? The Fed has signaled rate cuts this year. Here in New York, the city unveiled a program that it hopes will jumpstart rental construction. And the YIMBY call has gotten a little louder — in some places more than others. Our cover story digs into this — check that out starting on page 22. 

I would love to give you good news. But if I’ve learned anything about this industry, it’s the danger of making promises you can’t keep. Wherever there’s real estate, there’s always something unexpected right around the corner. 

This tension is at the heart of every good story — whether it’s a rags-to-riches quest or a fall from grace, a comedy or a tragedy. We’ve seen stories of every kind play out in the past year over the nearly 10,000 articles we wrote (9,832 when I counted on one of the last mornings of the year). 

I really can’t tell you what 2024 has in store, but I can remind you where we’re coming from. 

Reading through our top-performing stories from 2023, a few clear threads emerge. 

First, everyone had their eyes on the Tides — multifamily player Tides Equities, that is. Our profiles of Tides and of some similar syndicators were among the most-read articles of the year. These firms picked up steam in the past few years, under the notion that everybody needs a place to live (true) so they could always make money in multifamily (not). Their favorite lender, MF1, was the subject of our August cover story, and we continued tracking the troubled industry all year as operators struggled to stay afloat amid rising interest rates. 

Do you see the theme yet? It’s trouble. And it wasn’t only smaller operators or fast-growing upstarts that found it. 

Big dog Blackstone saw its Manhattan multifamily portfolio get downgraded by Moody’s, as chronicled in another one of our popular pieces. Moody’s cited cash flow that wouldn’t cover the debt service. Blackstone can handle the turbulence, but it’s telling that even the biggest fish in the pond felt the rough waters — and that you wanted to read about it. 

The struggle was common across just about every market we cover. Even Texas wasn’t immune. In Chicago, multifamily giant CA Ventures faced a liquidity crunch, eviction from its headquarters and lawsuits from lenders in a series of highly read stories. But CEO Tom Scott wasn’t ready to back down when he spoke to our reporter for the December magazine. “I’m actually pretty invigorated by the challenge of fixing stuff,” he said.  

This is classic real estate. Get knocked down, get back up. Get banned from selling condos in New York, move to Florida.

It’s not easy, though. See: Nightingale’s Elie Schwartz who, after his firm was accused of misappropriating funds raised via crowdfunding platform CrowdStreet in one of the most dramatic stories of the year, settled with plans to repay his lenders and make good. Nightingale will have to sell parts of its languishing portfolio to pay investors $4 million every quarter for the next three years. 

Plenty of 2023 drama is still unresolved. There are open questions at Ralph Herzka’s Meridian Capital, for example, after Freddie Mac announced that the firm was under investigation and suspended from working on Freddie deals, and a former Freddie CEO who’d been working at Meridian distanced himself from the popular commercial brokerage. 

Here in the first issue of the new year, we’re looking both backward and forward. Senior reporter Katie Brenzel tracked the fast rise and 20-year fall of Brooklyn’s Atlantic Yards megaproject. Joe Lovinger watched Texas developer Ari Rastegar race to bring his first ground-up projects past completion and toward infinity. And Katherine Kallergis met up with South Florida developer David Martin, whose sleek plans and supercool office don’t quite cover up the fact that he’s juggling on a tightrope, with five projects in the immediate pipeline and another six in planning stages. 

There’s more like this to come in 2024. How do I know? Because real estate will always have high stakes. It’s the adrenaline and the opportunity that keep us coming back.

Happy New Year, and happy reading. 

(Oh, and if you were worried, don’t be: Editor-in-chief Stuart Elliott is enjoying a well-deserved vacation, but he’ll be back next issue.)